While inflation in the UK has cooled to 2% this week, new research suggests the long-term outlook for pub-goers could be anything but easy on the wallet. According to an analysis of data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the average price of a pint could climb to an eye-watering £25.70 by 2040 if current trends continue.

The study, conducted by FruitySlots, looked at the 11% increase in pint prices over the past year, which has brought the current national average to £4.69 in the on-trade. By projecting this rate of increase forward, the report paints a sobering picture of what the next 15 years could look like for beer drinkers.

A steep rise from £5 to £25

The idea of paying £25 for a pint may seem extreme now, but for many drinkers, the reality of rising prices is already being felt. Tom Porter, a 44-year-old from Berkhamsted, Hertfordshire, reflected the sentiment of many when he said: “I’m only just getting my head round paying £5 for a pint. If it gets to a tenner, that’s bad enough—I’ll certainly not be getting the rounds in—and if it gets to £25 a pint I’m going teetotal.”

This reaction echoes growing concerns that the social tradition of meeting friends in the pub could become a luxury for fewer people over time. The financial strain is not just hitting consumers but affecting the entire hospitality sector, which continues to face mounting challenges despite falling inflation.

Pub closures on the rise

The rising cost of a pint is not occurring in a vacuum. The same analysis revealed that an average of 80 pubs are closing each month—a 51% increase in closures in just the first quarter of this year. The pressure is coming from all sides, including soaring energy bills, high business rates, and food and drink inflation that still sits well above the national average.

Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA), said: “The pub closure figures for the first quarter of this year are a reflection of the continuing high costs of doing business, especially with factors like high energy costs and food and drink inflation remaining higher than the topline inflation rate.”

Industry leaders call for reform

The issue of business rates has become a major talking point for those in the hospitality industry. Alex Probyn, president of property tax at Altus Group, explained that while some government pledges to reduce costs are welcome, more clarity is needed. “It is a tax that has risen 49% during the last 14 years with business, across all sectors, now paying £9.48 billion a year more than in 2010,” he said. “Whilst the pledges are welcome to drive down bills permanently for the high street, business had hoped for more detail and a timeframe in achieving this.”

James Rosen of FruitySlots added that the purpose of the study was to highlight the real-world impact of rising prices. “The study provides insight into the costs faced by patrons today and potentially in the future,” he said, calling attention to the need for better planning and support for the pub sector.

Looking ahead

As the UK’s beloved pub culture stands at a crossroads, the industry is calling for urgent intervention to avoid pricing out regular patrons. Whether the £25 pint becomes a reality remains to be seen, but the pressures on both consumers and publicans are very real in the present.

Without meaningful policy reform and relief for businesses, the local pub—long seen as the heart of the community—may become a luxury enjoyed by fewer and fewer people.